Soybean meal and soybean oil prices rose sharply, and theoretical benefits of imported soybean exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton

Due to the prediction of short supply of global soybean market, the market parties are concerned about the supply and cost of imported soybeans in February and March. The logistics resource shortage before the Spring Festival and the impact of the epidemic caused the overall soybean and product prices to rise sharply in January. Although the prices have fallen since the middle of the year, the average price still increased significantly.
 
The average soybean meal price jumped 612 yuan/ton last month to 3,818 yuan/ton. In January, the soybean meal sale slowed down; but due to the big pre-sale volume, the oil factory's delivery speed was accelerated. While approaching the Spring Festival, the operation rate will drop significantly, and the inventory will significantly decrease and stay at low level. In addition, the pig inventory in China is still recovering rapidly, and the logistics and transportation difficulties and increased costs caused by epidemic prevention and control are also the strong support for soybean meal prices.
 
Soybean oil continued to rise in December with the support from the international market and futures market. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the terminal stock is gradually completed and the catering demand greatly reduced, so the price began to fall from a high level. The average price of soybean oil in January was 8,710 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 356 yuan/ton compared with the previous month.
As a result, the theoretical crushing profit of imported soybean reached 1,082 yuan/ton on average, a sharp increase of 519 yuan/ton compared with the previous month. However, at present, the domestic port soybean inventory is relatively high. After the Spring Festival, as the oil plants restart operation, the epidemic situation is further controlled and the logistics system is restored, the supply of soybean and products will begin to exceed the demand, forcing the market price to decline. But with the support from the international market and high cost, prices are less likely to fall sharply.